Case Study #6 | Ivy Tree Advisors

Sales Forecasting & Strategic Planning: Biopharma

Transforming Oncology Product Investment Through Data-Driven Forecasting and Scenario Planning

Objective: Support a global pharmaceutical company in building robust, scenario-based sales forecasts for new oncology drug indications and formats, aligning joint venture (JV) partners on investment and market expansion decisions.
Activities and Deliverables:
- Developed sales forecasts for new oncology product formats, integrating product differentiation, global regulatory requirements, and market entry sequencing.
- Created comprehensive scenario planning models for expansion into additional global indications (EU, Japan, US).
- Provided in-depth financial analyses covering manufacturing costs and revenue projections for multiple launch scenarios.
- Facilitated strategic alignment and decision-making between the client, JV partners, and a major global pharma company.

Client faced high-stakes decisions regarding joint investment in a novel oncology product across multiple geographies.
Required forecasts that captured regulatory nuances, competitive dynamics, and the potential for new market indications globally.

Deliver validated, scenario-driven forecasts to support JV partner buy-in and de-risk new market entry.
Enable informed investment decisions for both existing and future oncology indications and formats.

Modeled differentiated product uptake, launch order, and global regulatory variations across major regions.
Built scenario planning tools for expansion into new indications, including sensitivity analyses for various market entry strategies.
Conducted financial modeling for manufacturing, pricing, and expected sales across multiple formats.
Coordinated joint review sessions to align JV partners and secure executive sign-off.

Achieved full joint venture buy-in from both companies, unlocking continued investment in the new product format.
Enabled scenario-based investment in an additional oncology indication (RCC), which received FDA approval in 2019.

Empowered client and partners to make confident, data-driven investment decisions for global oncology launches.
Established a scalable, repeatable approach to scenario-based forecasting for future pipeline assets.
Strengthened inter-company trust and decision-making, accelerating approval timelines and market entry across new indications.